Sometimes, like last night, I really do hate my addiction to daily fantasy basketball. Despite my firm belief that I had put together a very solid lineup, it fell short. Way short! Indeed, the winning lineup scored well over a hundred points more than my team. Of course, because I am a glutton for punishment, and because I enjoy trying to analyze what I could have done differently in order to place higher, I will once again examine last night’s top winner to see if I can glean anything helpful for tonight’s lineup.
First and foremost, congrats to “snapmare” and his or her amazing score of 350.2 that netted a cool $4,000 for the trouble. However, before getting into the specifics, one thing is clear about the winning lineup: it was extremely consistent. Although it did receive a few stud performances (including Duncan’s 54.8 fantasy points), every player on the team scored more than 33.5 points. I do not have to tell you how impressive that accomplishment is! [As an aside, this exact lineup was submitted by snapmare in the $125K Tue NBA Shot which also took down first place and the $10,000 first prize.]
December 9, 2014 FanDuel $60K Tue NBA Swat Winning Lineup
The Winning Lineup of "snapmare"
Point Guard # 1: M. Conley – Conley frustrates me. I start him and he underperforms. However, he showed up in a big way and provided 34.3 points (on his salary of $6,800), with 22 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 steals, and a turnover. He certainly paid off in a good way and I, once again, missed out.
Point Guard # 2: J. Holiday – The “cheap” power guard option that is Holiday is slowly getting more expensive. However, even at $7,200, it is nice to receive 34.7 point from him. He was aggressive on the boards and hauled in 6 rebounds and 2 steals, while not committing any fouls. However, point-wise, he excelled and scored 13 points with 7 assists.
Shooting Guard # 1: T. Evans – This guy is on my “never start” list, although I think I am alone in that sentiment as he was owned by 13.1% of FanDuel coaches. He is just too painful to ride up and down with. However, last night’s performance has me rethinking my stubbornness. Finding his way to 40.8 fantasy points, Evans scored 27 points and added 6 assists, 4 rebounds, 2 steals, and had his customary 4 turnovers.
Shooting Guard # 2: W. Matthews – While Matthews had a string of strong performances to finish off November, he has not been the same player in December. However, his last two games have been on point and he has averaged 30 over that span. Considering that he ended November averaging around 30 a night, it is fair to conclude that he will perform like that given a decent matchup. It seemed a lot of fantasy coaches agreed as he was owned by 14.3% of the teams. Last night, Matthews put up 33.5, including 19 points, 5 assists, 5 rebounds, 1 steal, and 1 turnover. It was not a very high scoring game so Matthews made the best of the opportunity.
Small Forward # 1: L. Deng – A value pick up for the night, Deng is still modestly priced at $5,900. Last night he was worth substantially more as he had 36.3, with 23 points, 4 rebounds, 3 assists, 2 blocks, and 1 steal. Deng only had 2 turnovers. Looking back with 20/20 hindsight, this matchup should have trigger a start from me.
Small Forward # 2: K. Leonard – I thought Duncan was going to be out so Leonard was a no brainer. 17.1 of the fantasy coaches felt the same and started him as well. We were not let down as Leonard donated 37.5 points to the cause, with 16 points, 5 steals, 5 assists, 5 rebounds, and 2 turnovers. That score line is impressive, especially since Duncan actually played and had a huge night himself (discussed below).
Power Forward # 1: T. Duncan – Not only did the winning team select Leonard, they paired him up with Duncan, who had a monster night. Even though his salary was $8,000, Duncan had 54.8, with 23 points, 14 rebounds, 4 blocks, 3 steals, 2 assists, against 2 turnovers. Nice double double Mr. Duncan!
Power Forward # 2: A. Stoudemire – I have been singing the praises of Stoudemire since he was named the starter. While his salary originally started down around $5,000, it has crept up to $6,300. Even so, this New York Power Forward is a steal. Last night was business as usual as he contributed 40 fantasy points, including 26 points, 5 blocks, 5 rebounds, all while only committing two turnovers. He was one of three players on the winning team that exceeded 40 fantasy points on this winning team.
Center: O. Asik – Another guy I fail to time correct is Asik, like I did last night. This New Orleans Pelicans center, like Evans discussed above, had a great night. On his basement bargain salary of $5,300, Asik contributed 38.3 fantasy points. That score consisted of 14 rebounds, 16 points, 2 blocks and an assist. Any time you can get a double double from a guy priced under $6,000, you are on your way to successful night!
My December 10, 2014 $60K Wed NBA Swat Lineup
Although last night did not go as planned, I am planning on getting back on track with tonight’s lineup. As usual, I like to play in the $1 entry fee “NBA Swat” tournament as I chase the top prize of $4,000. In this lineup, I expect to score 290 point, with some wiggle room to take it up a notch. With that said, over I really do not have any guys starting that can exceed 60 but I am hoping for an average of 30 per player.
Point Guard # 1: Ty Lawson ($9,000) – Unless you have been living under a rock, you know this guy is exactly that: A ROCK. He has scored over 40+ in five of his last six games. Indeed, his only sub 30 game was December 7 when he scored 27.2. Obviously, I need him to score at least 45 because his salary is now $9,000. However, with this matchup, I think that is entirely possible. EXPECTED POINTS: 45. [Projections are high-side guesses so take with a grain of salt.]
Point Guard # 2: Norris Cole ($3,800) – Having finally won the starting job, I expect Cole to give me a 6-7X ROI tonight (i.e., 22.8 - 26.6 fantasy points). This should be a fairly high scoring game and the added minutes will only serve to help Cole reach that goal. If anything, he should be feeding the ball to Dwayne Wade and Chris Bosh all night, even if he does not manage to score more than around ten points. EXPECTED POINTS: 25.
Shooting Guard # 1: Dwayne Wade ($8,100) – Since coming off his injury, Wade has only scored less than 31 points once, and that was his second night back when his overall minutes were cut by around six minutes. Tonight it is expected that he will play 34 or more minutes, which should translate into some serious upswing. EXPECTED POINTS: 35.
Shooting Guard # 2: J.R. Smith ($4,300) – This is risky pick, especially considering he has his best night last night when he knocked down 28.3 fantasy points. However, both his minutes and his production have been ticking upwards and I am looking for value that has that upside. EXPECTED POINTS: 20.
Small Forward # 1: Draymond Green ($7,300) – At the beginning of the season, this guy was a cheap player that provided value. He still provides value but it costs significantly more now. However, with a few dogs here and there, 30+ points is routine. EXPECTED POINTS: 30.
Small Forward # 2: Wilson Chandler ($6,200) – With Chandler, minutes are the key to his performance. If he gets 33+ minutes, I expect he will be a steal tonight. EXPECTED POINTS: 30.
Power Forward # 1: Amar’e Stoudemire ($6,300) – Like I have previously stated, I am rolling with Amar’e until he starts sucking or he gets too expensive. EXPECTED POINTS: 35.
Power Forward # 2: Pau Gasol ($9,300) – This guy is virtually the only sure thing is this lineup. Start with confidence. EXPECTED POINTS: 40.
Center: Timofey Mozgov ($5,700) – As you can tell, I am going with a heavy Miami versus Denver game. However, even if I was not going that route, I would probably go with Mozgov tonight. At his salary of $5,700, he has racked up several over thirty point games in a row. I hope he can keep that up tonight. EXPECTED POINTS: 30.