The downfall of FaceBook is coming. FaceBook is going to be heading the way of MySpace with drastically less traffic then they are use to. IS the demise of FaceBook imminent? No, it won't happen for a while. In fact when it does happen is still open, nut one thing that we have learned is that all web properties eventually seem to lose their luster.
Excite.com was one of the major web portals and search engines on the Internet. Almost everybody seemed to use Excite. Excite is no more, they could not adapt to the times. MySpace was very successful. Yet they refused to adapt to users' needs. Even with their new makeover they are still losing web visitors because their new makeover site runs so slow, even on a fast connection.
FaceBook has been able to evolve like Google did. They concentrated on building and expanding the infrastructure of their website, while listening to users' needs and desires. All signs point to the fact that eventually FaceBook will go on a huge traffic decline such as MySpace and Excite did. There are a few reasons this could happen.
If FaceBook becomes boring or non-important to the users who are today only toddlers in diapers, then when these kids get older FaceBook could see a massive decline in traffic. Another aspect to consider, which would be even more harmful to FaceBook, is technology and new web sites.
A new way of doing stuff online with an all new technology set-up that gets widespread appeal, such as the way Twitter rose to prominence, is one way that FaceBook will probably lose traffic and their market share.
Think about Geo Cities. Geo Cities was basically MySpace. You could make your own web pages, you could blog before it was even called blogging, and you could share your pictures with friends. MySpace came along and allowed you to do all of that and more, yet they made it simpler and the viral effects were obvious when MySpace took off.
FaceBook is in a great position because unlike MySpace they are not sitting still. They continually develop new features to keep users coming back. FaceBook has evolved into a company like Google. Even if you want to quit using FaceBook you can't. You need FaceBook to interact with certain friends and family members on a timely basis. You need FaceBook so you can market your business. You need FaceBook so you can use their advertising system to market towards specific niches that are extremely targeted.
I could happily quit using FaceBook, but I need them so I can keep up with my business contacts and drive traffic to the articles I have written online. FaceBook in many ways is actually in a much better position the Google is. Maybe we should be talking about when Google will no longer be the top search destination. Maybe Google and FaceBook will be fighting enough at one point that it will weaken them both slightly, and when Google and FaceBook are fighting each other some new upstart company in a garage in Silicon Valley will take off and eventually surpass both of them. Is it likely? Yes, but not anytime soon. Google and FaceBook will probably both lose out and no longer be top dogs in the web industry, but for now and the foreseeable future we all will be on Google and FaceBook.