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What is a Long Term Weather Forecast?

By Edited Jun 16, 2014 0 0

People often believe that the weather has a nature of being unpredictable – or is it? With science and technology, meteorologists have been able to predict the weather. Though not on a long term basis, they can predict weather accurately as far as 3 to 5 days ahead. After that period, they can have a general theory on how the weather will be. It can be predicted based from weather patterns, average yearly temperatures and levels of precipitation.

Scientists have studied our planet and they have gained facts and patters that have become common. For example, it is safe to say that the northern tier will be cold in the winter months. Since the Earth is moving away from the sun faster during the late part of the year, it can be assumed that temperatures will start dropping around September. You may be able to see the beginnings of snow precipitation during the first few weeks of November if you are living in the north.

Weather forecast is not just limited to predicting whether it will be rainy or sunny. A long term weather forecast also includes factors that can affect long term weather changes like natural disasters. Ashes that a volcano emits when it erupts can change cloud formation and precipitation. Recent large earthquakes have changed the rotation of the Earth slightly, which may contribute to a change in weather.

On a long term basis, there are already established weather cycles that the Earth will undergo. It shows the years when it will be hot or years when it will be cold. In some places, they name the hot period El Niño while the cold period, La Niña. These patterns can be used to have a long term weather forecast. If the precipitation is high, then you can say that you will have cold winters. Often, this period continues for a long term. If this period has already been long, then you can deduce that it will soon come to an end thus giving way for sunny and warm weather.

There are a lot of organizations and agencies that are making long term weather forecast. Though they are not precise most of the time, there are some of them that can be considered really reliable. There is one called Farmer’s Almanac. This has been published for more than a century and is used by a lot of people. As the title suggests, farmers use this to know about the best time to plant. Fishermen also used this to know when is the best time to sail in the ocean.

The web also has a number of resources and websites that talk about weather forecast. The Farmer’s Almanac maintains a website of its own. There is also the National Weather Service website. There are also some websites that feature climatologists that tells you the weather that you’ll have within your area.

With the proper tools and knowledge, one can predict long-term weather forecast way back 2,500 B.C. or as futuristic as the year 2040. Forecasts gained may not be that accurate but with the use of concepts and ideas mentioned above, one will have the general idea of the weather during those period.



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